In interpreting the week’s news, it’s also worth remembering that a few days or even a month of stock returns will not tell us much about where the market will be a year or more from now. In fact, although everyone would like to know where the current gyrations will take us, the unpleasant truth is that there is simply no reliable way to foretell the short-term path of the market.
You might not know that from the forecasts of major Wall Street investment houses. The start of a new year is the season for prognostication, and many analysts have issued very specific predictions. The consensus on Wall Street is that the S.&P. 500 will rise 7 percent for all of 2016.